AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are showing fractional gains so far on Friday. Expectations for old Crop corn export sales ran 500,000-800,000 MT for the week of Jan 11. This morning, the USDA showed the actual numbers blowing past that at 1.888 MMT (74.3 million bushels) for old crop. That was 38.08% larger than the same week in 2017 and the second largest weekly sale total in the 17/18 marketing year. Unknown destinations purchased nearly 770,200 MT, with Japan buying 415,600 MT. There were also 2,413 MT in new crop sales. Argentina’s early corn crop was rated at 12% gd/ex and 44.9% poor/very poor by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, compared to last year’s 33.4% gd/ex and 32.7% p/vp at this time.

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.52, up 1/2 cent,

May 18 Corn is at $3.60, up 1/2 cent,

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.68 1/4, up 1/2 cent

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.76, up 3/4 cent

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 5 to 6 1/2 cents higher at midday. Meal futures are up $4.40/ton, with nearby soy oil steady on Friday. This morning, the USDA indicated that old crop soybean bookings last week totaled 1.24 MMT, beating out expectations of 0.6-1 MMT. China purchased 576,600 MT, with Mexico buying 238,000 MT. The first full non-Holiday week of 2018 also showed new crop sales of 287,660 MT. Soybean meal sales were on the high side of expectations at 281,820 MT, as soy oil sales tallied 27,922 MT. In Brazil’s largest soybean producing state of Mato Grosso, the harvest is seen at 3.3% complete, vs. 11.5% for this time last year and the average of 7.2%. BAGE rates soybean conditions in Argentina at 37.3% gd/ex, vs. last year’s 52.6%.

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.79 1/4, up 6 1/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $9.90 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $10.00 1/4, up 6 1/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $10.02, up 5 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybean Meal is at $332.80, up $4.40

Mar 18 Soybean Oil is at $32.23, unch,

Wheat

Wheat futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents weaker in the CBT and KC contracts on Friday, on the heels of a slow Export Sales report. MPLS contracts are steady to 3 cents lower. The Export Sales report, this morning, showed all wheat sales of just 153,115 MT, the fourth smallest sale this marketing year. That was above last week’s MY low, but still lags this time in 2017 by 36.9%. Japan purchased a majority of that total at 97,200 MT. There was an additional 37,500 MT in new crop sales, bringing the total 18/19 sales to 241,252 MT, 1.5% shy of this time last year.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.22 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.27, down 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.09 1/2, down 1 cent

Cattle

Live cattle futures are showing 47.5 to 90 cent losses at midday. Feeder cattle futures are $1.10 to $1.45 in the red. The CME feeder cattle index on January 17 was $146.47, up $1.36 from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Friday morning. Choice boxes were down 58 cents at $205.11, with Select boxes 48 cents lower at $200.39. Estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter was 471,000 head through Thursday. That was 1,000 head fewer than last week. Cash trade so far this week has been fairly quiet, with just a few reported bids of $118. USDA reported Beef export sales for the week that ended Jan 11 totaled 15,008 MT. That was slightly ahead of the previous week and much larger than the same time last year.

Feb 18 Cattle are at $121.475, down $0.475,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $122.575, down $0.900,

Jun 18 Cattle are at $114.575, down $0.775,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.075, down $1.100

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $145.800, down $1.375

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $145.925, down $1.450

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are mixed on Friday, with most nearby contracts steady to 77.5 cents lower and back months higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 56 cents on January 17 at $73.55. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 19 cents at $80.86 in the Friday morning report. The ham and belly primals were the only cuts reported higher. The national base hog weighted average price was up 13 cents to $69.84 this morning. The week to date USDA FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,726,000 head through Thursday, which is 96,000 larger than the same week last year, but 89,000 head lower than last week. This morning’s USDA Export Sales report showed pork sales of 26,365 MT for the week ending January 11. That was well above the week prior and 3.6% larger than this time last year.

Feb 18 Hogs are at $72.275, down $0.775,

Apr 18 Hogs are at $75.750, down $0.150

May 18 Hogs are at $80.200, up $0.075

Cotton

Cotton futures are 68 to 72 points higher on Friday. Upland cotton sales totaled 275,060 RB in this morning’s USDA Export Sales report. That was slightly above last week but 20.62% below this week last year. There was also 104,632 RB in new crop sales, which is the largest new crop sales total this MY. Online cash sales for Tuesday reported on the Seam totaled 26,379 bales, as prices averaged 70.31 cents/lb, down 186 points from the previous day. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) announced Thursday was up a steep 324 points from the previous week to 74.45 cents/lb. The Cotlook A Index for January 17 was up 75 points from the previous day at 92.85 cents/lb.

Mar 18 Cotton is at 83.35, up 72 points,

May 18 Cotton is at 83.7, up 71 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 84.04, up 68 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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